Guitar music is on the way out

Talk about making the wrong call! The complete quote is, "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." Sound familiar? It was stated by Decca Records' Dick Rowe, in rejecting The Beatles in 1962.

TRENDS are easier to spot in the rear-view than when they are an acorn on the ground in front of you. Fortunately, there are a lot of tools that can help us read the signs and tell a fad from a real-live trend. What's the difference? I don't care just how the dictionary defines them, but I would say that a fad is a temporary or fleeting behavior change, while a trend is a long-term or permanent change.

Not that fads are bad - people have made a lot of money on fads. However, trends have a more substantial commercial opportunity for a number of players, not just (for example) the inventor of the Pet Rock or the slap bracelet. Most of business strategy has developed around spotting and exploiting trends to differentiate one from one's competitors and create a distinctive competitive advantage.

So, how do we spot ideas, determine whether they're fads or if they could become trends, and determine how best to jump on them? In my experience, there's no better starting point than consumer data and insights. What are consumers doing, buying, saying? Just as importantly, what is not working for consumers, and why?

Next, what else is going on in the consumer's world? If you're in portable consumer electronics, for example, don't just look at activity in that space; you might also look at also at purses & backpacks (where would your item fit?), color palettes (what's hot), what people are buying in to-go snacks and beverages. You have to find a proxy, or something similar that you can model and evaluate your concept on.

Most importantly, at the end of the day there's no replacement for intuition. Going with your gut. There's a lot to be said for testing and forecasting, but my sense is that Steve Jobs didn't test things to death by tweaking this and that, and re-checking with consumer panels to make sure something was gonna fly. If your first instinct is that an idea or concept isn't gonna work, you're likely best off letting it go and moving on. If something you see really lights you up, however, it may be worth spending some more time on. There are no guarantees, but your internal compass is better than a crystal ball.

By the way, Dick Rowe may have missed out on signing The Fab Four, but he did sign the Rolling Stones a short time later. Seems he changed his take on guitar music, and it wasn't too late.